Showing posts with label logic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label logic. Show all posts

Thursday, March 11, 2010

2012 is BULLSHIT

2012 Is NOT Going to Be The End of the World. That's Bullshit.

2012 is Bullshit.

''Hey, magx,'' cries internet conspiracy buff #232313, ''did you know the world is going to end in 2012?''

''It is?'' I ask, a knowing smile already forming, ''would you kindly tell me how?''

The conspiracy buff, not able to detect even the most thinly veiled sarcasm, takes the bait. Here's the gist of the ensuing conversation.

Claim 1: The Mayan calendar ends on Dec. 21St, 2012. This marks the end of the world, man!

Response: Before I actually get to how you're wrong about the calendar ending, let me ask you, what possible justification do you have for equating the end of an ancient calendar with the end of the world? And why, if the Mayans were somehow able to predict the end of the world, would they not have, you know........WRITTEN IT DOWN RATHER THAN BE SO FUCKING AMBIGUOUS?

Conspiracy buff: ............

Response: Exactly. Beyond that, the calendar doesn't even end. Dec. 21st marks the end of the Mayan long count period. Guess what happens next? Ya, the beginning of the next long count period.

Claim 2: Ya, but!!! But!!! Did you know a huge meteor is going to hit and wipe us all out?

Response: Astronomers watch for this very thing, and there are no meteors on course to hit the Earth in 2012.

Claim 3: Oh...well, did you know that the sun is going to like go crazy or something? There's going to be these huge solar flares, and shit's going to get fucked up!

Response: Solar flares are a normal occurrence. We see peak flare activity about every decade. And you're actually right, there might be increased solar flare activity in 2012. It's on track for a 2012-2014 peak period. But I'm telling you, the worst that happens is an interruption in some satellite communications. Which actually does suck to some degree. And is an actual problem, but engineers are at work on this very issue, and the issue is of minor concern at best, not climactic concern.

Claim 4: There's this planet called Planet X, or Nibiru, that is set to collide with the Earth in 2012.

Response: No, there's not.

......Okay, okay, I'll expand on that, but, at the risk of sounding condescending, I really shouldn't have to. Why don't you people stop listening to random internet websites and radio crackpots, and start, I don't know......going to the actual science?. Just like with anthropogenic global warming, evolution, 9/11 controlled demolition theory....all of this stuff is appropriately dealt with if you actually take the time to research the actual science, and not get sucked into accepting the shit floating around out there, just because it's easy, prepackaged microwave friendly information with some convincing sounding information and scary music.

Ugh....anyways, there's no such planet. Astronomers would have seen it decades ago, and if it existed, and was on course to hit us in 2 years, we would actually be able to see it with the naked eye. And yes, I have heard some nutcases trying to say that the astronomers are incorrect, and that it's not able to be seen, which they ''support'' with some fancy sounding pseudoscientific nonsense, but again, simple logic people:

If it can't be seen, HOW THE FUCK DO THEY KNOW ABOUT IT? Also, let's say that there's a way, such as anomalies in the solar system that could only be accounted for by the existence of some dwarf planet in the inner solar system, and not outer (like Eris, which is real), HOW WOULD THESE PEOPLE KNOW THIS AND NOT THE ACTUAL EXPERTS?

Claim 5: Well.....the astronomers don't want to tell you man, it's a conspiracy!

Response: If it were that fucking easy to discover, they would be stupid to keep it secret, since they would know that any armchair astronomer could discover it, and the jig would be up. Now, to be fair, I know the response is that if they don't admit it, they can deny deny deny, and the reason they don't admit it is to stave off the ensuing panic. I get that, and grant you that it actually makes sense.

Problem is, you guys think it's so easy for huge groups of people in all sorts of countries and organizations, including governments, are so adept at keeping secrets, but it's not true. There's no way it wouldn't slip. They couldn't keep the teapot dome scandal quiet, Watergate, the Illinois senator trying to sell a senate seat, etc etc etc. All involving small groups of people, and all known. People can't keep secrets, and on such a large scale, it's impossible.

Another thing is, if they somehow were able to keep a major secret of this nature, you're still not thinking this through. Think about it, what makes more sense:

1) Keeping the planet secret, knowing that the armchair astronomers will discover it, and leak the information anyways?

OR

2) Telling people, but telling them we know how to deal with it and avoid disaster? If you think they can keep secrets so well, then they could make up a plausible sounding solution, and there you go, no panic.

All of this also applies to other conspiracies, not just Nibiru/Planet X

Claim 6: Okay, but did you know that the Earth's polarity is going to shift? The Earth's Crust is going to do a 180 degree rotation, brosauce. Also, there's going to be a reversal in the Earth's magnetic polarity.

Response: It's impossible for the Earth's rotation to reverse. It does wobble in its axis in a 25, 800 year long cycle. This phenomena is called precession. As for the change in magnetic polarity, this actually does happen. Magnetic reversals occur every 400,000 years or so. This is not due to happen for thousands more years. And we don't have ANY evidence that this even impacts life on Earth.

You could say that we don't know for sure, and I could say....we don't know that it DOES, so making a positive claimlike you guys do is baseless. As for the fact that we don't know that it doesn't, look it up (not on conspiracy site) and see. I'm not well versed on the process beyond what I have already said, so I can't comment further.

Claim 7: Okay, that stuff might have been wrong.....maaaaaaaaaaybe......but this one is true. Planetary alignment baby. The planets are all going to align, and that will screw up the Earth's gravity....or something.

Respone: There are no planetary alignments due to occur for decades, let alone in 2012, and even if all of them aligned, the effects on the Earth would be of little concern.

Claim 8: Fine, whatever. How come Earthquakes have been on the rise?

Response: No, they have not. The frequency of earthquakes has remained stable since 1900. I can provide you geological data to back this up, although, frankly, you should be doing this yourself if you are going to make such baseless, erroneous claims.

Now let me ask you something: Did you know there have been thousands of dates heralded as the end of the world? And did you know 100% of them have been wrong? The world WILL end, at some point, but not in 2012. When it does end, there are several ways it could go down.

My money is on a gamma ray burst, which are flashes of gamma rays (aka super intense radiation) that occur when stars go supernova. These fuckers are so incredibly intense that, and I want to listen to this very closely, because it's just do incredibly mind blowing, a typical gamma ray burst releases as much energy in a few seconds as the Sun will in its entire lifetime. Ya, seriously.

The End

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

9/11 Controlled Demolition Conspiracy Theory Debunked

You think it was a U.S. government conspiracy that perpetrated 9/11?

Think the WTC buildings were brought down via controlled demolition?

Well, they weren't.

Here's a few points I'd like you to consider. This isn't entirely comprehensive of course, but I'm not doing all of your research for you.

1) Where was the evidence of the controlled demolition afer the fact? There is always evidence of the explosive devices on the scene after a controlled demo. Yet, no such evidence was ever seen. Wonder why?

2) When do you propose they went into the buildings and planted all of those bombs, and how is that that no one noticed anything either during, or anytime after this operation?

The world trade center tower walls would have had to have been opened on dozens of floors, followed by the insertion of thousands of pounds of explosives, fuses, and ignition mechanisms, all sneaked past the security stations, inside hundreds of feet of walls, on all four sides of the building. Then the walls would have to be closed up.

This all taking place without attracting the notice of any of the thousands of tenants and workers in either building?

Really?

And again, say that somehow happened, where was the evidence on the scene?

3) People point to the beams with diagonal cuts as evidence of thermite usage.

Well, the beams were cut.....During the clean up:





4) The towers were designed to withstand impact with a jet.

The towers did withstand the impact.

They were brought down by a combination of the damage sustained during impact, and the fires, both of which resulted in enough structural instability to bring the buildings down.

5) But it looks like a controlled demolition!!!

Turn your sound on, and then watch this 30 second video:



People will compare video of a controlled demo and video of the WTC buildings falling once they start to fall. Well, look at them before that point. When a controlled demolition takes place, the charges are extremely loud and follow each other in sequence. THEN the building falls.

Look at that video. The charges go off for 10 seconds before the building starts to collapse. This was not heard or described by anyone on 9/11, nor during the collapse of Seven World Trade. It is not in any videos or heard by any witnesses.

It was not a controlled demolition.

6) Still somehow think it was? Really?

Explain this:

Why did the collapse of buildings 1 and 2 start from the top of the buldings, where the planes hit??

Controlled demo collapses start from the bottom. Not the top.

There was no controlled demolition, and there was no U.S. government conspiracy.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Newsflash for Creationists!!!

'Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens our Future'

There is a book, released last year, entitled 'Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens our Future' It's about the disconnect between scientists and the general public. The book's homepage: http://www.unscientificamerica.com/ talks about the issue.

Here is an excerpt:

Some of our gravest challenges—climate change, the energy crisis, national economic competitiveness—and gravest threats--global pandemics, nuclear proliferation—have fundamentally scientific underpinnings. Yet we still live in a culture that rarely takes science seriously or has it on the radar.


For every five hours of cable news, less than a minute is devoted to science; 46 percent of Americans reject evolution and think the Earth is less than 10,000 years old; the number of newspapers with weekly science sections has shrunken by two-thirds over the past several decades.


The public is polarized over climate change—an issue where political party affiliation determines one's view of reality—and in dangerous retreat from childhood vaccinations. Meanwhile, only 18 percent of Americans have even met a scientist to begin with; more than half can't name a living scientist role model.

The situation is pretty bad down there in the US (not sure how we're faring overall here in Canada, but I do know we're experiencing a fundamentalist uprising, and the asociated antiscientifc sentiments are rearing their ugly heads as well). Biased news media outlets pick up a story that conforms to their preconceived notions (say, Anthropogenic Global Warming is false) and gladly report it ad nauseum, hammering home the message for the viewers....all without bothering to either wait for things to come clear, or do some honest appraisal and fact checking.

And once the people hear it on tv...it's gospel. They don't think critically. They don't do the research themselves. Look at the whole 'climategate' thing. And, as the old saying goes, the lie spreads quickly and sticks, so even if the truth eventually gets out, it's too late (or something like that).

Another example was the supposedly suppressed EPA analysis of a climate change bill. Fox news was all over it, saying that the EPA did not include in its report a 98 page document generated within the agency that questioned the science of global warming.

Of course, if anyone had bothered to do any, you know, reporting, they would have found that the report was written by two non-climate scientists working for the NCEE, who relied heavily on the work of a leading figure of an industry front group to write their report, which was actually nothing of the sort. They regurgitated pseudoscientifc nonsense from the front group's website. But the damage had already been done, and the science of global warming was further undermined in the public's eye.

So, what the hell do we do? Do scientific establishments need to hire full time PR firms to counter this bullshit before it does the damage it so often does?

Do we revamp the education system so it puts more focus on critical examination and less on blind acceptance and submissiveness to authority?

WHAT? What can we do? Are people too far gone? Is everyone too busy with their ipods and such that they don't have time for the science anymore? Are we too accustomed to having our knowledge delivered to us in quick 3 minute soundbites? I mean, how many people actually refer to the actual science? I love asking deniers of AGW or Evolution,
How much of the actual research have you read, or even glanced over? Hell, how many abstracts have you read?
The answer is usually none.

People deny decades, and even centuries worth of multidisciplinary scientifc evidence, and all they have to go on is some biased news stories, a couple of articles on the internet, and most importantly, selfish reasons for wanting to deny these things, religious, political, financical, or otherwise.

It's incredibly sad, and it threatens our actual futures. Yes, no hyperbole. It threatens our very future.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

New Research: Atheists 'just as ethical as churchgoers'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/7189188/Atheists-just-as-ethical-as-churchgoers.html

Few excerpts:

People who have no religion know right from wrong just as well as regular worshippers, according to the study.

People who did not have a religious background still appeared to have intuitive judgments of right and wrong in common with believers, according to the findings, published in the journal Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

The team looked at several psychological studies which were designed to test an individual’s morality.


Dr Hauser added: "The research suggests that intuitive judgments of right and wrong seem to operate independently of explicit religious commitments

 You can read more at the link I posted above.
 
To this, I think the only thing I can say is, "duh!" To any reasonable person, this is quite obvious. However, unfortunately, there are many people out there who feel that someone such as myself, has no moral compass.
 
They could not be more incorrect. Hopefully now, at least a few of these people will be stripped of such notions. The notion that one needs religion to be a moral person is incredibly outdated and misguided, and it's time to put it to rest.

Sarah Palin: 100K for Q/A, Still Needs Crib Notes





















So Sarah Palin uses crib notes for a Q&A session, during which she was asked general queestions about concepts and things she supports. She is unable to even recall her own stances on policy?


Here's the question for which she needed to consult her hand:

What are the top three priorities once there's a conservative president and congress?


....

---

Can someone please, please, help me out here. Explain to me how someone so incredibly useless can get paid 100K for a speaking engagement, and possibly run for president, after all of the stupid, stupid things she has said?  And even now after this, people will continue to take her seriously.

What must one do to lose credibility anymore? It used to be that people had integrity, and were qualified for the positions they were running for (and even if they didn't, and weren't, they knew how to hide it).

Now......ya, I don't understand it. You can be a war criminal and still get paid huge money for speaking engagements, rather than be placed in jail like you should be (Bush), you can be a complete and utter dolt, still get paid for speaking engagements, get hired to work for a news channel (if you can call it that) and possibly run for US presidencey (Palin).

What the **** is going on down there?

How did we get this far? We have free speech on trial in Amsterdam, we have this woman who:

1) Doesn't know her own policies

2) Still fails prescreened questions

3) Tried to ban books

4) Thinks foreign policy consists of proximity and visibility

etc etc etc

And somehow, rather than be made a laughing stock, she:

1) Has a million plus selling book

2) Gets paid 100 thousand dollars to speak to disenfranchised people about greed

3) Was a presidential running mate

4) May be running for US presidency in 2 years

etc etc etc.

It hurts. It honestly hurts. I'm only 28, and I can honestly say I sometimes feel like I might as well give up, it's over. This is one of those times.

Am I the only one who gets nostalgic for time periods in which he did not even live? I see images and video of the early 20th century, and I wish I was there....but, yes, I am aware of the rose tinted glasses thing. I know the folly of the ''sinking ship'' view of the current generation.

It's just so hard sometimes......

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Geert Wilders: on trial for telling the truth

Two Years in Jail for "Offending People?"

This blog, by Douglas Murra, a bestselling author and award-winning journalist based in London, describes an ongoing trial in Amsterdam, which consists of a popular politican being put on trial for.......are you ready for this?

Offending Muslims.

Yes, freedom of speech is on trial in Amsertdam.

A small excerpt:

The Dutch courts charge that Wilders ‘on multiple occasions, at least once, (each time) in public, orally, in writing or through images, intentionally offended a group of people, i.e. Muslims, based on their religion’.


I’m sorry? Whoa there, just a minute. The man’s on trial because he ‘offended a group of people’? I get offended by all sorts of people. I get offended by very fat people. I get offended by very thick people. I get offended by very sensitive people. I get offended by the crazy car-crash of vowels in Dutch verbs. But I don’t try to press charges.

Yet, crazily, this is exactly what is going on now in a Dutch courtroom. If found guilty of this Alice-in-Wonderland accusation of ‘offending a group of people’, Wilders faces up to two years in prison.


If anyone doubts the surreal nature of the proceedings now going on they should simply look through the summons which is available in an English translation here. It shows that Wilders is on trial for his film Fitna. And for various things he has said in articles and interviews in the Dutch press.

This video talks about the issue:

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Ritual killings of children in Uganda



This basically speaks for itself.....

Thursday, February 4, 2010

The Atheist Experience: Global Warming Denial and God Belief

The Atheist Experience: Global Warming Denial and God Belief

The Atheist Experience blog has been updated with a post regarding Rush Limbaugh, who, after identifying himself as a creationist, stated, "I simply cannot accept the fact that we would be created to do things that would destroy our environment..."  (apparently he has never heard of pollution, industrialization, holes in the ozone layer, forced extinctions, and the (egregiously!) fallacious nature of arguments from incredulity)

Don, who posted the blog, went on to postulate why it is he feels that the religious are the most vocal when it comes to global warming denial. For me, the issue is not one of motivating factors in the denial (one of which religion may be) but rather, the denial itself, and how it comes to pass. The unfortunate thing here, is, religious or non, most people seem to come to decisions regarding these sorts of issues based not on the actual science, but what they hear in the media and read on the internet/hear from friends.

A few convincing soundbytes and it's over, which is really sad, and must be inordinately frustrating for those hard at work on these issues.

Sadly, I was one of these people for a while there....so I can understand how it easy it to fall into the trap. The important thing to remember is that the science should speak for the science. Analyze the data yourself, be critical of the methodology and the concluisons but go to the data itself, not an intermediary.

Go the the source, folks, go to the source.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Atheists Kill Children!! UPDATED!!

I had a particularly distasteful exchange with a youtube user by the name of MaIcoImZieI, who left the following message on another theists' channel.

First, he said this on mysticalforest's Channel:

"It's sad to see that so many people believe Charles Darwin, Evolution, 'Scienfitic Facts' and don't try themselves to find out what is truly behind this magical life."

LOL! Misguided and sad as it was, I at least derived a bit of a laugh from it.

But then, he said this:

"Yesterday an Atheist man killed his two children in my city. Shows you what people are capable of once they have turned their back to God. Stay strong!"

Well, I HAD to respond to that nonsense. So I sent him this:

" I really would like to know if you are actually positing the ''turning of one's back to god" as the cause for murder?


I'm not here to bash you or argue with you. I have no issue with you being theist, at all. But I do have an issue with this partciular statement, and honestly, you should as well. I mean, the flaws in this are incredibly self evident, so for you to say it means you either remain willfully ignorant of them, or honestly haven't thought this out.


Honestly, do you see the major flaws in such a statement? I will gladly inform you of them if you ask, but I truly want to know if you can figure it out for yourself.


And if I am coming across as condescending, that is not my intent. It's just that this is a fundamentally and obviously flawed statement.


And it's also not fair. You guys are demonizing an entire group of people, and that's not right."

And he comes back with this:

"You know very well that when people do not understand the value of life, they will do anything they want. Are you saying that if this man would have known God, if he would have known the value of life, if he would have had any understand of morality, he would still have killed his children? NEVER!"

So, I respond back, and demolish his line of thinking:

"You avoided my question. And you also made the same fundamental errors. I guess I have to fill you in on what they are:


1) Generalizations. This should be obvious. You cannot extrapolate from one incident and apply it to a whole group. That's like me saying that all Chrstians who follow the god of th ebible are against abortion, or gay marriage. You and I both know that is not correct, but if I were like you I could point to the Westboro Baptists and say ''Well, this is what happens when you believe in that god."


Hitler was a professed Christian. Do I assume that Chrstianity leads to genocide?


I hope you can see how that's faulty logic.


2) What exaclty is that claim based upon? Do you know for sure that was the reason he killed his children? What about mental illness? Or any number of other extraneous and concomittant factors? From where do you draw this conclusion?


3) You say god as though everyone believes in the same god as you. Presumably, you are a christian. What if this man believed in a god, just not the same one as you? Would you be saying that he did this because he did not believe in the right god, or is it only the total lack of a belief in any god that leads to child murder?


4) Why aren't all atheists murdering their children?


5) What about religious people of all faiths who have murdered their children? What do you have to say for that?


6) "Understanding of morality." Are you saying that one needs god belief to understand morality?


Use the brain you believe your god gave you. Just think about what a horribly nasty, vile thing it was you said, and see how your dogmatic and erroneous belief has stopped you from seeing the incredibly obvious flaws in such a disgusting assertion."

I haven't heard from him since, but he's been on the site.  I half expected him to trun tail and run when faced with coheren thoughts, and it looks like that's what he's going to do.....so typical.

The question is, do I bother with it? I'll update this with any and all new developments. For now, I'll leave it, but maybe in a day or two if I haven't heard back I'll say something....I dunno.

This is a really sad state of affirs here people. Science denial and misconstrual, and beliefs such as ''atheism leads to killing children" existing in 2010 saddens me to no end.

(And yes, I know the whole Hitler being a christian thing is contested. The fact is, he was. Whether or not he believed it or was utilizing it as a means to an end is up for debate, but it's not like I couldn't have pointed to any number of other murdering religious people to elucidate my point to him.)

UPDATE: He got back to me, check out this amazing response:

"People like you will never learn. But he... that makes sense... you believe we came out of a magical Big Bang explosion (before which there was nothing?) and POP! here we are! Of course you wouldn't understand. Do you really think I am going to argue with you if you believe that bullshit? Start thinking for yourself instead of reading books written by others."

What the fuck.

I sent him this:

"You can't be serious. You just can't. If you are serious, wow, you're absolutely stupid. And you're also a coward, because you completely failed to address the point. The last sentence really nails the conundrum. You're either screwing around, or monumentally stupid, and ignorant of the massive amount of irony contained in that one pathetic sentence.

Either way, you're a waste of time."

I was going to try and continue discussing this with him, but come on, it's impossible either way, so fuck it, I decided to be blunt. Enough is enough.

Christianity is Wrong, Disgusting, and Morally Reprehensible

Just think about this for a moment.

God creates us. He creates laws. We break those laws. God sets the penalty for such disobedience. That penalty is death.

He ends up killing nearly everyone.

So, this god character needs to come up with a new plan.

"AHA!," he says, ''I've got it! I'll forgive them!''

...."But first I need a blood sacrifice."

And so he sacrifices himself to himself in order to atone for us breaking the laws he himself created. Now we're all forgiven.....sort of.

Wait just a minute....he sacrificed himself to himself to save us from himself?
Let's let that sink in.

And now we are supposed to view it this as mercy? Why couldn't he just forgive? Or change his rules? Or, you know, see all this coming, since he is supposedly omniscient?

But nope. None of that. There had to be death.

Why?

Just because.

Now go tell your young children that they have blood on their hands. Or should I say on their 'soul'? Someone they did not know was brutally murdered to atone for the sins of their ancestors, for which they somehow carry the burden.

That's fucking disgusting.

EDIT: See HERE to get some more perspective as to why the entire story of christianity is reprehensible- and ridiculous. If, after reading both this and that, you still do not agree, please proceed to click HERE, as clearly that would be the perfect description for you.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Astrology is Bullshit

Repeat after me:

Astrology is Bullshit!

Astrology is Bullshit!


Already knew this? Good, now read this anyways.

Find yourself a bit miffed right now, thinking I'm full of crap? Keep reading.

So, I am going to make the case today that Astrology is nothing than a pile of outdated and laughable ridiculous pseudoscientific fucking bullshit. And I will do this through 3 pathways:

Scientific Evidence

Psychological Evidence

Logic


After this is all said and done, my goal is for everyone who reads this to understand that

ASTROLOGY IS FUCKING BULLSHIT



Man, this feels good already. You have no idea how much I detest this astrology shit. Everytime I get asked ''What's your sign?'' I want to punch through the persons' stomach, pull their liver out, and beat them with it. I especially love how no one ever knows your sign, until you tell them it (well, I used to, to humour them, but now I just tell them it's nonsense, but I digress) and then they either nod and say ''yup'' or get all perky and say ''I knew it.'' Ya, you fucking knew shit, you liar, because if you did, you WOULDN'T HAVE HAD TO ASK ME!!!!.

Like that one time I saw a ''psychic'' who gave me all sorts of vague information about what was going on with the situation between myself and my sister, which was great, save for the fact that I DON'T HAVE A FUCKING SISTER, YOU FUCKING FRADULENT LIAR!!!! YOU WOULD HAVE KNOWN THAT, IF YOU WERE REALLY PSYCHIC!!!! Ever notice how ''psychics'' always have vague answers, general statements, and they have to ask you your birthday and things.....I THOUGHT YOU WERE FUCKING PSYCHIC YOU SHOULD KNOW MY BIRTHDAY!!!! Funny, with the thousands of psychics in the world, not ONE steps forward before a terrorist attack and warns the people. Were were all the psychics before 9/11, HUH? WERE WHERE THEY? TOO MANY CROSSED ENERGY WIRES THAT DAY?

….Okay, sorry, big digression there. Back to the topic at hand (and yes, ''psychics'' are also bullshit; perhaps I'll get to that in another edition).

So, on with the evidence.

Scientific Evidence

Definition of atrology: Astrology is a group of systems, traditions, and beliefs which hold that the relative positions of celestial bodies and related details can provide information about personality, human affairs, and other terrestrial matters.

Well, guess what? It has been scientifically demonstrated that this is bullshit.

I'll attack this in 2 ways:

1)Studies done on the accuracy of astrological predictions
2)The problem with the ''science'' behind the astrology to begin with


Studies done on the accuracy of astrological predictions

''Good news for rational, level-headed Virgoans everywhere: just as you might have predicted, scientists have found astrology to be rubbish, writes Science Correspondent Robert Matthews.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1439101/Astrologers-fail-to-predict-proof-they-are-wrong.html

Its central claim - that our human characteristics are moulded by the influence of the Sun, Moon and planets at the time of our birth - appears to have been debunked once and for all and beyond doubt by the most thorough scientific study ever made into it.

For several decades, researchers tracked more than 2,000 people - most of them born within minutes of each other. According to astrology, the subject should have had very similar traits. Researchers looked at more than 100 different characteristics, including occupation, anxiety levels, marital status, aggressiveness, sociability, IQ levels and ability in art, sport, mathematics and reading - all of which astrologers claim can be gauged from birth charts.

The scientists failed to find any evidence of similarities between the time twins, however. They reported in the current issue of the Journal of Consciousness Studies: The test conditions could hardly have been more conducive to success . . . but the results are uniformly negative.


And that's not all.

The time-twins study is only the start of the bad news for astrologers, however. Dr Dean and Prof Kelly also sought to determine whether stargazers could match a birth chart to the personality profile of a person among a random selection.
They reviewed the evidence from more than 40 studies involving over 700 astrologers, but found the results turned out no better than guesswork.
The success rate did not improve even when astrologers were given all the information they asked for and were confident they had made the right choice.


Dr Dean said the consistency of the findings weighed heavily against astrology.

It has no acceptable mechanism, its principles are invalid and it has failed hundreds of tests, he said. But no hint of these problems will be found in astrology books which, in effect, are exercises in deception.

From wiki:

Studies have repeatedly failed to demonstrate statistically significant relationships between astrological predictions and operationally-defined outcomes. Effect size tests of astrology-based hypotheses conclude that the mean accuracy of astrological predictions is no greater than what is expected by chance.

But there's more

The problem with the ''science'' behind the astrology to begin with

The whole thing is based on the fact that your your zodiac sign supposedly corresponds to the position of the sun relative to constellations, right? Well, check this out:

The positions changed over 2200 years ago.

Let that sink in for a second.

You see, the Earth wobbles around in it's axis in a 25, 800 year long cycle. This phenomena is called precession, and it is the reason why your ''signs'' are completely wrong. Even if this was all true, they'd be off by about a month:

http://www.livescience.com/strangenews/your-astronomical-sign.html

Over the past two-and-a-half millennia, this wobble has caused the intersection point between the celestial equator and the ecliptic to move west along the ecliptic by 36 degrees, or almost exactly one-tenth of the way around. This means that the signs have slipped one-tenth—or almost one whole month—of the way around the sky to the west, relative to the stars beyond. For instance, those born between March 21 and April 19 consider themselves to be Aries. Today, the Sun is no longer within the constellation of Aries during much of that period. From March 11 to April 18, the Sun is actually in the constellation of Pisces!

You will most likely find that once precession is taken into account, your zodiac sign is different. And if you were born between November 29 and December 17, your sign is actually one you never saw in the newspaper: you are an Ophiuchus! The eliptic passes through the constellation of Ophiuchus after Scorpius.


Here is how the ''real'' chart would look:

Capricorn - Jan 20 to Feb 16
Aquarius - Feb 16 to Mar 11
Pisces - Mar 11 to Apr 18
Aries - Apr 18 to May 13
Taurus - May 13 to Jun 21
Gemini - Jun 21 to Jul 20
Cancer - Jul 20 to Aug 10
Leo - Aug 10 to Sep 16
Virgo - Sep 16 to Oct 30
Libra - Oct 30 to Nov 23
Scorpius - Nov 23 to Nov 29
Ophiuchus - Nov 29 to Dec 17
Sagittarius - Dec 17 to Jan 20

Ever heard anyone mention Ophiuchus before?

Ya, me either.

Psychological Evidence

Two psychological concepts can easily explain why people are so convinced of the veracity of astrology: The Forer Effect and Confirmation Bias.

The Forer Effect

The Forer effect refers to the tendency of people to rate sets of statements as highly accurate for them personally even though the statements could apply to many people.

http://skepdic.com/forer.html

Psychologist Bertram R. Forer (1914-2000) found that people tend to accept vague and general personality descriptions as uniquely applicable to themselves without realizing that the same description could be applied to just about anyone. Consider the following as if it were given to you as an evaluation of your personality:

You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather unrealistic.

Forer gave a personality test to his students, ignored their answers, and gave each student the above evaluation. He asked them to evaluate the evaluation from 0 to 5, with 5 meaning the recipient felt the evaluation was an excellent assessment and 4 meaning the assessment was good. The class average evaluation was 4.26. That was in 1948. The test has been repeated hundreds of time with psychology students and the average is still around 4.2 out of 5, or 84% accurate. In short, Forer convinced people he could successfully read their character. His accuracy amazed his subjects, though his personality analysis was taken from a newsstand astrology column and was presented to people without regard to their sun sign.


Want to see a short 1:35 second video of this in effect? It's awesome:





Astrological readings are always vague and present common characteristics.

Think about it. What about the fucking assholes in the world? The serial killers, psychopaths, sociopaths, rude, bitchy, annoying, etc people. Where are their readings? You ever see a reading that said ''You will be a fucking prick today?”' NO! They present ideas that people are likely to agree with, because we all like to think of ourselves as being ''At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved.''

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is the tendency for people to prefer information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses, independently of whether they are true. In the context of ''psychic'' and astrological ''readings,'' this describes the tendency for people to remember and place significance on the ''hits'' and to forget the ''misses.'' It has been demonstrated that people will come out of a ''psychic'' reading which had a success rate of that equal to chance (duh) and state that they thought the reading was 80 or 90% accurate. I have seen video footage of this, and in more than one, people even reported things like ''he knew all about my aunt theresa's illness, and I didn't even mention it'' when in reality, they are on video telling the ''psychic'' ''my aunt is sick.''

So you get people hearing a vague reading applicable to anyone, thinking it's really accurate and specific to them, all because they place significance on the things that seemed right, and downplay the ones that are ''off.'' Then, they tend to report a much higher accuracy after the fact than there really was.

Logic

Ah, logic. I love logic. We all should love logic. Astrologers hate logic. Tell me something:

Astrology states that our personalities are determined by celestial positionings at the time of our birth, right? Well then, WHY DO TWINS HAVE DIFFERENT PERSONALITIES? Shouldn't they be exactly the same?

Here's a hint: YES, they should be, and NO THEY ARE FUCKING NOT!

Why, in that video I posted above, did a room full of people with completely varied ''signs'' all agree that the reading they got described them, when they ALL GOT THE SAME MOTHERFUCKING READING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

How many times does science have to disprove bullshit before people let it fucking go?

Another one, as I posted above: What about the fucking assholes in the world? The serial killers, psychopaths, sociopaths, rude, bitchy, annoying, etc people. Where are their readings? You ever see a reading that said ''You will be a fucking prick today?”' NO! They present ideas that people are likely to agree with, because we all like to think of ourselves as being ''At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved.''

So, again, Think abouuuuuuutttt iiiiittttttt!!:

There are tons of assholes in the world, yet NO READINGS for them? So, what, celestial positiongs only determine the personality of nice people? Assholes get their personalities from, like, what? Genetics? Environment? Give me a break. Our personalities come from the fucking sky, man, we all know that!!!!!

Astrology is absolute fucking horseshit. It's bullshit, it's fake, it's a huge money making industry (seriously, famous astrologers make MILLIONS) that takes advantage of people. Astrologers should be in jail for fraud, not making millions. Same with ''psychics'' but that's for another day.

They are propagating pseudoscientific nonsense that has been discredited since we moved to a heliocentric view of the cosmos. In other words, a few hundred fucking years. They are exploiting people, and if you have ever paid for a ''reading'' you should go demand your money back.

The End

Thanks for reading.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Satirical Video: What If God Disappeared?



Predictable, but clever little video depicting a world without 'god.' I got a laugh out of the puppy line.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

When Nonsense Kils

Pseudoscientific nonsense such as Dowsing (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dowsing) has been around for ages. It's something that I detest, but never more do I abhor such nonsense as when it actually results in death and bodily harm.

Jim McCormick, based at offices in rural Somerset, UK., has sold $85 million (yes, million) worth of completely fake ''bomb detectors'' to various governments for profit under the guise of offering protection. These ''devices'' are nothing more than glorified dowsing rods, and the ''chips'' inside them were discovered to be useless RFID chips, such as those found on price tags. There were warnings about this fraudster over a decade ago when he was selling these from within the US, mainly coming from the James Randi Educational Foundation (JREF) but these went ignored.....

Now that people have been killed by bombs not being detected by this stick with fake technology in it, the UK government has finally stepped in.

The large question here is why are governments buying untested technology from a single person making wild, unsubstantiated claims? This has to stop. Police using ''psyhics'' is bad enough, and now this. When our very governing bodies buy into pseudoscientifc bugaboo with nary a discerning glance, we're either dealing with rampant stupididty and gullibility, amazing greed, or both. Either way, we need to WAKE UP.

Read the story and watch the embedded video to get all of the details.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8471187.stm

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Evolution isn't True?

If you have an issue with Evolutionary Theory, read the text on the following picture (click to zoom in), and answer the question at the bottom of it:

(And by the way, to head off any possible ''it's just a theory!!'' responses, the meaning of the word 'theory' in science is much different than the colloquial usage of the term:

In the sciences, a scientific theory (also called an empirical theory) comprises a collection of concepts, including abstractions of observable phenomena expressed as quantifiable properties, together with rules (called scientific laws) that express relationships between observations of such concepts. A scientific theory is constructed to conform to available empirical data about such observations, and is put forth as a principle or body of principles for explaining a class of phenomena.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory



So, which one is it? As it says, if you have a problem with Evolution, you have a problem with one or more of these fourteen points. Which will it be?

Friday, January 22, 2010

Atheism is a Religion? and The Burden of Proof UPDATED

This blog will address 2 claims I see made with respect to atheism:

1) Atheism is (or has become) a religion.

2) It takes as much faith to be an atheist as it does a theist (ie, to not believe in a god requires evidence) aka The burden of proof argument, or the ''You can't prove god doesn't exist'' argument.

These of course aren't posited by all (probably not even most) believers, but they do come up often enough in online (and other) discourse.

However, before I get to the two main points, I would just like to operationally define atheism. It's actually quite simple, as atheism is not a worldvidew; it has no edicts, dogma, or tenets. It is literally and simply the lack of a belief in god(s).

Theism=belief in god(s) (deities)

Add the prefix 'a', which denotes lacking, or being without, to it, and you get:

A-theism, or atheism, the lack of a belief in god(s) (deities)

And that's it.

We can talk about agnosticism (which is not a 3rd option, but that's for another day), antitheism, secular humanism, stron atheism (aka there is no god) aka gnostic atheism, etc etc but do not let these ideas become red herrings in discussion. No matter what the Ray Comforts or the Pat Robertsons of the world tell you, that right there is atheism, and any and all beliefs in addition to this are extraneous (not that they cannot be built upon/from it, they can be, and are). All I have in common with other atheists is my atheism. After that, our ideologies will differ as will anybody else's. I might meet an atheist tomorrow who is socially conservative and thinks religion is a positive influence (aka my total opposite), etc.

Anyways, now that we have that under wraps, let's get to the two claims, shall we?

Claim #1: Atheism is a Religion

Point me to:
1) our church
2) our tenets
3) any atheist pageantry
4) where I pay my tithes

Claim #2: ''You can't prove god doesn't exist'' argument

The burden of proof is on the claimant. Not believing claims is not a claim. The burden of proof is on the theist, not the atheist. The ONLY atheists who must shoulder that burden are the gnostic (aka I know there is no god) atheists. The 99% of us that are rational don't claim knowledge. We lack the belief.
Saying I believe no gods exist is a statement that follows from my examination, and subsequent rejection of, the ''evidence'' for the existence of a god(s). I am not making a positive claim; I do NOT have the burden of proof. How would an atheist prove such a negative?

Russell's Teapot exemplifies this nicely:

If I were to suggest that between the Earth and Mars there is a china teapot revolving about the sun in an elliptical orbit, nobody would be able to disprove my assertion provided I were careful to add that the teapot is too small to be revealed even by our most powerful telescopes. But if I were to go on to say that, since my assertion cannot be disproved, it is an intolerable presumption on the part of human reason to doubt it, I should rightly be thought to be talking nonsense. If, however, the existence of such a teapot were affirmed in ancient books, taught as the sacred truth every Sunday, and instilled into the minds of children at school, hesitation to believe in its existence would become a mark of eccentricity and entitle the doubter to the attentions of the psychiatrist in an enlightened age or of the Inquisitor in an earlier time. -Bertrand Russell, 1952 (unpublished article for Illustrated magazine)

Another way of looking at it is to ask yourself if you believe in the Loch Ness monster, and then ask yourself if it's up to you to prove it doesn't exist, or up to the people claiming it does to prove it. Remember, the lack of evidence is evidence. Not proof, mind you, not definitive, but certainly evidence.

Theists and atheists are not on equal ground. Saying ''I believe god exists'' is NOT equal to saying ''I believe no gods exist'' in terms of the burden of proof. I believe no gods exist because I have not been convinced otherwise. If no one had proposed a god, you would never say I have to prove this position. Now, because gods have been proposed, we're on equal ground?

No way. As soon as these gods were proposed, the burden of proof was on the ones making said propositions. If they fail to prove this claim is true, the person who continues to disbelieve is not suddenly required to provide evidence to show that this unbelief is justified.

This is why, in court, the crown has to prove the defendant is guilty. The defendant is NOT required to prove their innocence, and neither is the jury. The burden is on those making the claim. Until the person was brought up on charges, they were presumed innocent. As soon as the gulty claim was made, the burden of proof was created, and it rests on those making the claim. If this burden is not met (aka reasonable doubt) the propsoal is rejected aka disbelieved, without any further burden on the disbelievers.

This is allegorical to the atheists. Until a god is posited, I'm an atheist. Once a theist comes by and makes their case, the burden is on them. If, at the end of their presentation, I say ''I find the evidence lacking, I do not believe you,'' they don't get to say ''but you didn't PROVE that he doesn't exist!'' That job is theirs.
Theirs and theirs alone.

Unless of course I retort with "I know there is no god!" In that case, I say, good luck, pal ;)

Our Ideas Regarding Sexuality/The Body/Nudity Are Screwed Up

Warning: this blog contains FOUL LANGUAGE.


Still here? Alright, let's rock.

I just saw this picture of a fashionable, unknown (to me), pretty celebrity:


And it raises the question: In a society where nudity is frowned upon, how does putting a little star over your nipples make it okay to walk around with your tits out? Somehow we have decided that breasts should be covered up, but then have arbitrarily determined that it's only the nipples that are the ''offensive'' part? It's the nipples that somehow make the breast a breast?

If that's true, then why can guys walk around without a shirt? Obviously we aren't really ''offended'' by nipples. So if nipples are okay, and clearly, breast tissue surrounding the nipples is okay (that's why media outlets with no nudity policices allow pics like that) then I have to ask....what the fuck? How does that make any sense? Are female nipples somehow ''offensive''? If females walked around in topless bikinis at the beach, would that cause irreperable harm to those who witenssed it?

I also love how on a webistes with nio nudity policies, or in ''no nudity'' magazines, a good ol' girl who ''won't do nudity'' not only has no problem showing off 99% of her breasts (as long as those nipples are covered), but she will show her ass....oh, but she's wearing a thong. Um, that desn't cover the ass, at all. I can clearly see your ass, honey. So I guess asses aren't nudity......?


Good thing that ass is covered. Otherwise I'd have been offended

The whole thing, like so much else in life, is so arbitrary, and really, fucking stupid. I don't know how it was determined that our bodies are evil/dirty/sinful whatever, but it's ridiculous. It leads to stories like the one where that guy was arrested for making coffee naked in his own house,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/6406630/Man-arrested-for-making-coffee-in-own-home-while-naked.html

because some woman was walking by with her little son and they looked in his window and saw him. OH NOES! A PENIS!! Guess what, sister? YOUR SON HAS A PENIS. Penises are not offensive. They are only shocking because we randomly said they are. If no one made a big deal out of it from the start, there would be no issue. Seeing a penis should not be a traumatic experience.

Funny thing is, she probably wouldn't have batted an eye if they walked by a male dog. Somehow, it's not dog penises that are the problem, just human ones. Unless this nutcase would have tried to get the dog arrested as well, who knows. Fucking soccer moms.

My mother in law exemplifies this. It's natural for babies to touch their genatalia. Well, when my daughter does it, my wife and I don't bat an eye. But my mother in law immediately moves her hand and scolds her (a ten month old baby). I haven't said anything yet, because I haven't seen it (my wife told me about it the other day) but when/if I do see it, I will make a point to nicely tell her that there is nothing wrong with it, and see if she tries to defend her position. I can't see her arguing anything other than ''it's just not nice.'' ''It's not proper for a lady.''

SAYS FUCKING WHO? If we ALL do it, maybe you should just shut up and accept it's normal, rather than punish people for not meeting some false, arbitrarily imposed bullshit standard.